Simulation of Population Dynamics of Bar-headed Geese (Anser Indicus) Around Qinghai lake region and Trend Analysis

Bar-headed geese (Anser indicus) is one of important migratory goose’s species group in Qinghai lake region, the population dynamics of which is the foundation data to decision-making of Bar-headed geese’s protection in Qinghai lake National Nature Reserve in future. A bar-headed goose population dynamics model was constructed in Qinghai lake region regarding the dynamics with STELLA graphical modeling software. The parameters included in the model that describing mating, egg deposition, hatching, brood-rearing, immigrating, emigrating and death of bar-headed goose had been set on the base of long time studied and observed data of bar-headed goose. In running simulation models, we use one year as unit and 1/7 as a time step in accordance of periodic time of bar-headed goose stay in Qinghai lake .The next 25 years’ simulated population changes results of bar-headed goose showed that trend of the maximum bar-headed goose population will vary around 20 thousand in Qinghai lake region. Meanwhile, the population was simulated that assuming calamity strikes in 2010.The model and simulated results about bar-headed goose population are reliable according calibrated results using observed data from 2006 to 2008, and the method of modeling bar-headed goose population provides with some reference to further research on other birds in Qinghai lake region. In the end, some suggestions of protecting bar-headed goose from danger have been put forward based on above results in paper.